Answer in brief
What the Bank of Japan published
The September Tankan, released on 1 October 2026, reports a current business-conditions diffusion index of 24 for large manufacturers, compared with 22 in June. This is an improvement in the survey balance for a defined group. It is not a statement that Japanese production grew by 24%, nor a result covering every business equally. The population, question and observation period are essential parts of the number.
Understand the scale before comparing countries
The Tankan balance reflects favourable assessments minus unfavourable assessments. The OECD business confidence indicator is a different measure, with a standardised scale centred on 100. Both can help readers discuss sentiment, but their headline levels are not interchangeable. Our editorial suggestion is to write the indicator’s definition beside the chart before comparing it with another country’s confidence measure. Similar labels can conceal different questions and statistical transformations.
A simple example of a changing balance
Imagine ten hypothetical respondents answering the same question in two periods. If some move from an unfavourable answer to a neutral or favourable one, the net balance can improve even though no production quantity was recorded in that question. This example illustrates survey arithmetic, not the composition of the actual Tankan sample. It helps separate what respondents report about conditions from what an output, sales or employment dataset measures directly.
Read the next figure in the same frame
Check whether a table describes current conditions or forecasts, large or small companies, manufacturing or other industries. Compare the same group across releases and look for documented activity measures if you want to assess economic performance. The rise from 22 to 24 gives a specific sentiment signal, not a guaranteed path for profits or investments. Our view is that the strongest reading combines the survey’s own methodology with a clear account of what remains unknown.
Questions and answers
Does a Tankan reading of 24 mean 24% economic growth?
No. This diffusion index reports the balance between favourable and unfavourable assessments in a specified group of companies.
Can I compare Tankan 24 directly with OECD confidence 100?
Those indicators use different definitions and scales. Read each methodology and compare changes within a consistent series first.