Answer in brief
NAR’s latest verified pending-sales release shows a small August increase led by the South and West. All four regions remain below last year, and signed contracts still need to reach closing.
A slight monthly gain leaves a larger shortfall
US pending home sales increased 0.3% in August but remained 4.7% below a year earlier, according to the National Association of REALTORS’ release of 17 September 2026. This is the latest verified observation used for the 1 October edition. The small monthly improvement therefore belongs to August contracts, not September activity, and it should not be described as a newly measured October rebound in housing demand.
The figures give two legitimate but different views. More contracts were signed than in July, while fewer were signed than in August 2025. The annual comparison also fell in every major region. Our interpretation is that the monthly gain shows some resilience in the flow of agreements, but the breadth of annual weakness makes a claim of general recovery premature on the evidence in this release.
The regional pattern is uneven
The South gained 2.3% from July and the West 3.0%. The Northeast declined 4.2% and the Midwest 1.6%. These are movements within each regional series, rather than percentages that can be averaged without weights to reproduce the national result. Regions differ in their contribution to total contract activity. A simple average would answer a different question from NAR’s published national index and could misstate the balance of demand.
On the annual comparison, the South was down 3.8%, the Northeast 3.9%, the Midwest 4.9% and the West 6.7%. The West consequently combined the strongest monthly gain with the largest annual decline among these regions. That is a useful illustration of why direction and level need separate attention: an improving latest month can still leave a market well below its position a year earlier.
| Region | Monthly change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| United States | +0.3% | −4.7% |
| Northeast | −4.2% | −3.9% |
| Midwest | −1.6% | −4.9% |
| South | +2.3% | −3.8% |
| West | +3.0% | −6.7% |
A contract is a step before completion
NAR’s pending-sales measure concerns existing homes for which contracts have been signed but transactions have not closed. The association says closings usually follow within one or two months, although the interval varies. Mortgage financing, inspections and appraisals can affect the process. The index is therefore an early indicator of future sales activity, rather than a count of completed transfers or households already moving into new addresses.
The report says its sample covers about 40% of multiple-listing-service data each month. An index value of 100 represents average contract activity in 2001; it is not 100 homes or the proportion of listings that sold. Those definitions are important when readers encounter the index beside other housing statistics. Its function is to track the relative pace of agreements within a stated measurement framework.
New-home sales follow a different reporting convention
The US Census Bureau’s methodological note explains that a new-home sale is recorded when a contract is signed or a deposit accepted. The home can be unstarted, under construction or completed. Existing-home sales, by contrast, are generally counted at closing. This note is background about definitions rather than new August market evidence. It explains why two reports carrying the word sales may describe different points in a transaction.
Pending existing-home contracts are closer in timing to that new-home agreement stage, but the property populations still differ. It would be misleading to treat the series as interchangeable or infer that identical percentage movements describe identical conditions. A newly built house sold before construction and an existing apartment awaiting closing involve different supply circumstances even when both buyers have reached an agreement with a seller.
Separate the economist’s explanation from the measurement
NAR’s chief economist attributes the subdued market partly to higher mortgage rates offsetting stronger buying power from employment and income growth. That is the association’s explanation of the result. The release itself reports contract movements; it does not isolate the independent contribution of rates, incomes and local prices in an experiment. The explanation should therefore be attributed rather than presented as a measured decomposition of the August change.
The regional split also cautions against using one national story for every household. A buyer in a market with falling monthly agreements may face different negotiating conditions from one where contracts have recovered. The report does not identify those conditions for a specific property. Local supply, comparable completed transactions and the buyer’s ability to close are the evidence needed to move from national context to an individual decision.
The next report will test whether the improvement spreads
NAR lists 20 October for the September pending-sales release. As of the evidence cutoff, that result is still ahead and no September percentage is claimed here. The useful follow-up will be whether more regions show monthly improvement and whether annual shortfalls narrow. A single national increase cannot answer either question, particularly when the latest regional paths already run in different directions.
For sellers planning a move, the distinction between agreement and completion is practical: an accepted contract begins another phase of the process. For readers assessing the market, the August release describes a modest monthly lift within a weaker annual pattern. Keeping the contract stage, regional weighting and observation date visible allows that signal to be used without turning it into a promise of a completed transaction or an imminent broad upswing.
Questions and answers
Does the 0.3% rise mean more homes were handed over?
No. Pending sales record signed contracts on existing homes, before the transactions close. The report is an early signal of potential completions, not a count of keys delivered.
Why can the West rise monthly but fall most annually?
The comparisons use different starting points. The West gained 3.0% from July but remained 6.7% below August 2025, so a recent rebound coexists with a larger annual shortfall.
Is this a September sales result?
No. NAR published the August result on 17 September. Its page schedules the September pending-sales report for 20 October; this article does not present that future release as observed data.