Answer in brief
In the Israel election of 27 October 2026 the Central Elections Committee count, as reported on 30 October, gave Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc 48 and the Arab-led parties 19. A majority needs 61. Certified results are due by 4 November, after which President Isaac Herzog starts the process of choosing who tries to form a government.
How Israel elects the 120 members of the Knesset
The Israel election of 27 October 2026 was held under a system in which voters do not choose a local candidate. Each voter picks one party list, and the 120 seats of the Knesset are shared out in proportion to the votes cast across the whole country, as the Wikipedia article on elections in Israel describes it. The vote came after the Knesset dissolved on 17 July 2026, which Wikipedia records as the end of its full four-year term.
A list must win 3.25 percent of the votes cast to enter the Knesset, a level the Times of Israel put at about four seats in its explainer of 18 October. A governing majority is 61 of 120. Al Jazeera notes that no single party has ever reached 61 alone, so every Israeli government is a coalition, and the party with the most votes is not automatically the one that governs. After consulting the parties, the president chooses the member of the Knesset most likely to be able to form a viable coalition.
What the exit polls projected on the night of the vote
An exit poll is an estimate made on election night, not a count of ballots. According to Wikipedia, seven polls were published overnight into 28 October, from Kan 11, Channels 12, 13, 14 and 16, i24 and Channel 9. They put the government bloc between 50 seats on Channel 9 and 62 on Channel 14, with Kan at 51, Channel 12 at 52 and Channel 13 at 51. Al Jazeera summarised the picture on 28 October as a deadlock with both main blocs at 51 seats.
Channels 12 and 13 projected 27 seats for Likud and 21 for Eisenkot's Yashar party, and Al Jazeera reported the Arab-led parties at 19 seats, up from 10. Eisenkot said the old era was over. Netanyahu said Likud was the largest party and called for a national right-wing government, and he accused television channels of projecting stronger results for the opposition. Those were claims made on the night of the Israel election, before most ballots were counted.
The count as of 30 October and what remains preliminary
Early partial counts in the Israel election moved as more ballot boxes were opened. Al Jazeera, citing the Times of Israel, reported 56 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 49 for Eisenkot's and 15 for the Arab-led parties when just over 55 percent of ballot boxes had been counted. The Times of Israel then reported Central Elections Committee figures at 7:21 pm on Thursday 29 October, with 99.9 percent of ballots counted, giving 53, 48 and 19. Al Jazeera reports that final results were published early on Friday 30 October, with turnout at 77.9 percent, the highest since 1999.
On that count Likud has 27 seats, Yashar 21, B'Yachad (Together), led by Naftali Bennett, 12, the Joint List 11, Ra'am 8, The Democrats 8, Otzma Yehudit 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Yisrael Beytenu 7, Shas 6 and Religious Zionism 6. Wikipedia gives Likud 20.52 percent of the vote and Yashar 16.05 percent. Two lists that missed the threshold, Reservists-Economic at 2.63 percent and People of Israel at 1.7 percent, receive no seats, according to the Times of Israel.
Preliminary and certified are different words. The 'double envelope' ballots of soldiers, prisoners and diplomats were estimated by the committee at 430,000 to 480,000, a figure it called preliminary. The Times of Israel notes that a seat is worth roughly 40,000 votes and quotes an expert who expects those ballots to move individual parties by no more than one or two seats. Formal results are due no later than 4 November, and only that certified version goes to the president.
Three blocs, and why the Arab-led parties hold the balance
The Times of Israel groups Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism as the Netanyahu bloc. On the 29 October committee figures it has 53 seats, eight short of 61, compared with the 68 it held in the outgoing Knesset. This is the bloc that governed before the vote, and Netanyahu describes the result as a win for the right because Likud is the largest single party.
The same report puts Yashar, B'Yachad, The Democrats and Yisrael Beytenu together as the Eisenkot bloc, with 48 seats, 13 short of a majority. Eisenkot describes the result as a vote of no confidence in Netanyahu. Neither description changes the arithmetic: on these numbers each camp is well below 61 by itself.
The third group is the Joint List and Ra'am, which together won 19 seats, a record and up from 10 in the outgoing Knesset. Wikipedia's table of possible majorities shows the Eisenkot bloc and Ra'am reaching 56, still short, while the four Eisenkot-bloc parties plus both Arab-led parties reach 67. That is why analysts quoted by Al Jazeera call these parties potential kingmakers, even though they are not formally part of either bloc.
What each side has said since the vote
On Friday 30 October Netanyahu wrote on X that it is forbidden to form a government with the Arab-led parties, Al Jazeera reports. Likud has accused those parties of stealing the election. According to Wikipedia, a committee official answered that the election was clean, while Likud asked the police and the Shin Bet to investigate irregularities in Arab communities. These are allegations by one party and a reply from the committee, not findings.
Eisenkot has described the vote as a verdict against Netanyahu. The Times of Israel, cited by Al Jazeera, reports that he will consider only partners that recognise Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accept the values of the Declaration of Independence and commit to national service, and that he has not said whether the Arab-led parties meet those conditions. Yair Lapid, the opposition leader, called the result a total collapse of the Netanyahu bloc, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called such statements premature.
Avigdor Lieberman repeated the slogan 'Neither Bibi nor Tibi' on Thursday 29 October; Al Jazeera reports that he ruled out certain coalitions. Mansour Abbas of Ra'am said he hopes the final count lets the opposition and his party reach 61 seats, and Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List said his party is ready to see the Netanyahu government ousted. On 29 October left-wing activists protested outside Eisenkot's home in Herzliya and called for a government that includes the Arab parties, according to an AFP photo caption quoted by Al Jazeera.
The legal timetable from certified results to a new government
The Times of Israel explainer sets out the steps. Formal results are published no later than 4 November. Within seven days of that publication President Isaac Herzog, after consulting representatives of the parties, assigns the task of forming a government to a member of the Knesset, which matches section 7 of the Basic Law: The Government as quoted by Wikipedia. Wikipedia lists 10 November as the day the new Knesset is sworn in.
The first candidate has 28 days to put a coalition together, with a possible extension of 14 days, so up to 42 days in all, a figure Al Jazeera also gives. The coalition must then win a confidence vote in the Knesset. Until a new government is sworn in, the current one stays in office.
If the first candidate fails, the president has three days to name another member of the Knesset, who gets 28 days without an extension. If that also fails, the president tells the Knesset that no government can be formed, and 61 members then have 21 days to petition the president to entrust the task to a particular member. If no one succeeds, the Knesset dissolves and a new 90-day election cycle begins, with the outgoing government acting as a caretaker in the meantime.
Scenarios that analysts describe, and where they differ
Al Jazeera's explainer of 30 October collects views from analysts rather than forecasts of its own. Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House says Netanyahu could try to persuade Eisenkot and others to join him while questioning the legitimacy of the Arab parties. Nimrod Flaschenberg says Netanyahu is courting one or two opposition parties, most likely Bennett's and Lieberman's, though it does not look as if they will join.
For an Eisenkot-led government, Flaschenberg outlines three forms of Arab participation: ministers, membership of the coalition without ministers, as Ra'am had under Bennett in 2021 to 2022, or support from outside. He says most observers expect Ra'am inside and the Joint List outside. Roi Zur of Essex University mentions rumours of Arab support in an investiture vote but thinks it unlikely and says the numbers do not add up for any side. Flaschenberg also expects Netanyahu to push for another election, believing his bloc could then reach 61.
Dates to watch and where official updates appear
The first fixed point is 4 November, the latest date for formal results. Within seven days after publication the president assigns the first candidate, which by that rule means 11 November at the latest. Wikipedia lists the swearing-in of the new Knesset for 10 November.
For numbers, the Central Elections Committee is the source on which the outlets above base their figures, and the certified version is the one that counts. For the choice of candidate, watch statements from the president's office. Compare the date stamp on every figure you read, because a partial count from 28 October and a final count from 30 October are not the same thing. Treat accusations of fraud as claims until the committee or a court rules on them.
Practical checklist
- Check the date and stage of any seat figure: exit poll, partial count, full count or certified result.
- Compare each bloc total with 61 and note which parties are counted in which bloc.
- Look for the Central Elections Committee's certified results, due no later than 4 November 2026.
- Note the president's choice of candidate and the day the 28-day period starts.
- Separate quoted claims, such as fraud allegations, from statements by the committee or a court.
Questions and answers
Who won the Israel election of 27 October 2026?
No bloc has a majority. Likud is the largest single party with 27 seats on the count reported on 30 October. Netanyahu's bloc has 53, Eisenkot's 48 and Arab-led parties 19, so the outcome depends on coalition talks.
Can the final count still change the seat totals?
Certified results are due by 4 November. The committee called the double-envelope estimate preliminary, and the Times of Israel quotes an expert expecting at most one or two seats to shift between individual parties.
Why does Netanyahu's bloc need the Arab-led parties, or anyone else?
Its 53 seats are eight short of 61. It would need parties outside the bloc, such as those led by Bennett or Lieberman, and the sources quoted here do not report that any of them has agreed to join.
How long do coalition talks last by law?
The first candidate named by the president has 28 days, which can be extended by 14. A second candidate gets 28 days without an extension. After that 61 members of the Knesset have 21 days to propose someone.
What happens if no government is formed?
According to the Times of Israel, the Knesset dissolves and a new 90-day election cycle starts. The outgoing government stays on as a caretaker until a new one is sworn in.