Answer in brief
As of 4 November 2026, US stocks rose sharply as networks projected Democratic control of both chambers. Past midterm years were followed by gains in most cases, but that is a record, not a forecast. Democrats take office on 3 January; the 11 December funding deadline falls first.
Where the count stood on the morning of 4 November
As of 4 November 2026, any question about markets after midterms starts with a count that was not finished. CBS News projected at 10:15 p.m. on election night that Democrats will gain control of the House, with an estimated 251 to 268 seats once all votes are counted. About 75 House races were still undetermined at 4:19 a.m., according to CBS. Every seat total in this story is a projection by a named outlet and can change as ballots are counted.
In the Senate, CBS projected at about 11:35 p.m. that Democrats gained control, with at least 54 seats and Alaska and Mississippi unresolved. Northeastern University’s analysis says Republicans had held a 53–47 majority and Democrats flipped seven seats. Hakeem Jeffries said “America is back”, and Chuck Schumer said Democrats had won the Senate. John Thune wrote on X that “we still have President Trump in the White House”, and the president told CBS News he looks forward to working with Democrats “for the good of our country”.
What stocks, yields, oil and the dollar did on Wednesday
Prices moved before the count was complete. According to CNBC’s live coverage, as carried by StockTitan, Dow futures were up 1,083 points, or 2.1%, at 8:45 a.m. Eastern. At 11:00 a.m. the Dow was up 1,377 points, or 2.7%, the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.8%. A Yahoo Finance page carrying TheStreet’s report showed the Dow up 2.98% and the S&P 500 up 1.88%, while its headline said 2.5%. None of these intraday figures is a closing price.
CNBC reported that Treasury yields fell and the dollar slipped, without figures, and that US crude futures were about 2% lower, at roughly $94 a barrel, in the morning. The Yahoo page showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.896%, down 0.056 percentage points, and December crude at $89.61, down 6.74%. It gave no value for the dollar index, so none is given here. Analyst Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com was quoted saying that an early selloff in equities and the dollar “has given way to a relief rally”.
Readers who follow the ruble meet a different mechanism. The Bank of Russia says on cbr.ru that official rates are set by an order and remain valid until the next order takes effect. Its page lists rates applying from 4 November 2026: 81.6699 rubles per US dollar and 91.6010 per euro. The Bank states that it has no obligation to buy or sell currency at those rates. This story makes no forecast of the rate.
What 38 midterm elections since 1874 show about the next year
The Motley Fool’s research page covers all 38 midterm elections from 1874 to 2022, with dividends reinvested. It finds that the S&P 500 averaged a 14% gain in the 12 months after Election Day and was higher 84% of the time. For any 12-month period since 1871 the average was 11%, higher 73% of the time. These figures describe the past, are not adjusted for inflation, and are not a forecast.
The page also splits cases by who held power. After 23 midterms with a divided government the 12-month average was 16%, positive 91% of the time. With a Republican president and a divided government, 14 cases, it was 18% and 93%; with a Democratic president, nine cases, 13% and 89%.
The Fool page also lists the limits. It calls the link between seat losses and next-year returns weak in both chambers and says returns followed historical circumstances more than election results. Its worst 12-month cases were 1906, at minus 34%, and 1930, at minus 33%. Yahoo Finance’s own count since 1950 finds no negative 12-month result in 19 cycles, and calls it a small sample and not a guarantee. Nothing here is investment advice and the story makes no prediction of its own: a personal decision about savings belongs with a licensed adviser.
Why the new majority does not take office until 3 January
The Twentieth Amendment, in the text published by the National Archives, ends the terms of senators and representatives at noon on the 3rd day of January and says their successors’ terms then begin. ABC News (Australia) reports that the new Congress is sworn in on 3 January. STAT adds that Republicans remain in charge until then.
ABC says current members return on 9 November. It also describes what a new House majority can do alone: Democrats plan a 100-hour push on bills about tariffs, the Iran war and health insurance costs. A bill needs 60 votes in the Senate, apart from budget reconciliation, and the president can veto it unless two-thirds of both chambers override. A bill that passes the House is therefore a proposal, not yet a law.
The 11 December funding deadline and what a lapse would mean
The stopgap law that funds the government runs to 11 December 2026. The House Appropriations Committee Democrats’ statement of 1 September says the continuing resolution pushed the deadline to that date, and Holland & Knight says it was signed on 2 September. Rep. DeLauro said then: “We have 101 days until government funding expires.” Holland & Knight writes that a partial shutdown is possible if no deal is reached.
The full-year bills are not finished. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) counts 3 of 12 fiscal-year 2027 spending bills passed by the House and none by the Senate. Holland & Knight lists four paths: full-year bills in an omnibus or smaller packages, another stopgap into early 2027, a hybrid, or a lapse for some agencies. ABC notes that a shutdown would be the fourth of the president’s second term.
Other authorities end around the same time. Holland & Knight lists surface transportation programs and the National Flood Insurance Program on 11 December, and the Community Health Center Fund on 31 December. Both dates fall before the new Congress is sworn in.
Tariffs: what the Constitution says and where the courts stand
The Constitution, as the National Archives publishes it, gives Congress the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises in Article I, section 8. On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts wrote the opinion, and Justices Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh dissented, according to Wikipedia’s summary.
The ruling did not end tariffs. Wikipedia’s account says Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium were not part of that case, and describes a Section 122 global tariff, limited to 150 days, that took effect on 24 February at 10%. The RV Industry Association reports that on 24 July new Section 301 tariffs, announced by the US Trade Representative on 23 July, replaced it, at 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies.
Refunds are a separate track. Wikipedia cites US Customs and Border Protection as saying about $166 billion was collected from more than 330,000 importers, and that $81 billion had been refunded by July. The Supreme Court did not decide how refunds would be paid.
Tax items and the debt limit still waiting for Congress
The Constitution says in Article I, section 7 that all bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House, so a tax bill starts there. Holland & Knight lists tax items that could ride on a year-end package: the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, the enhanced ACA premium tax credit, Section 48D and technical corrections.
The debt limit is a separate clock. CRFB gives it as $41.1 trillion after a $5 trillion increase in an earlier law, says it will likely be reached within six months and says Congress must raise it by mid-2027. None of this is a forecast of what will pass.
Dates to watch from 9 November to mid-2027
The calendar built from these sources is short. On 9 November current members return, according to ABC, and counting continues in the House, Alaska and Mississippi. On 11 December the stopgap funding law and the surface transportation authority end, and on 31 December the health center fund does. On 3 January the new Congress is sworn in, and by mid-2027, per CRFB, the debt limit has to be raised.
Nobody knows yet how many seats each party will hold when the count ends, whether Congress will pass full-year bills, another stopgap or neither, or what tariffs will apply a year from now. The Wednesday market moves are intraday prices; final closes come from the exchanges and index providers. A reader who needs a number for a decision should take it from the primary page on the day it is needed.
Practical checklist
- Take final seat totals from a named outlet; Alaska and Mississippi were still uncalled on 4 November.
- Use closing prices from the exchange or index provider, not the intraday figures of a live page.
- Mark 9 November, when sitting members return, and 11 December, when the stopgap funding law ends.
- Read past midterm returns as a record with sample sizes, not as a forecast of the coming year.
- For the ruble, read the Bank of Russia’s official rate on cbr.ru and treat any forecast as unsourced.
Questions and answers
Do stocks usually rise in the year after midterm elections?
The Motley Fool’s record of 38 midterms since 1874 shows an average 12-month gain of 14%, positive 84% of the time. The same page says the link to election results is weak and the pattern is not a forecast.
When does the new Congress actually take office?
The Twentieth Amendment ends current terms at noon on 3 January and starts the successors’ terms then. ABC News (Australia) says the new Congress is sworn in on 3 January; until then the sitting Congress handles the agenda.
What happens if funding is not passed by 11 December?
Holland & Knight says a partial shutdown is possible if there is no deal. It lists four paths: full-year bills, another stopgap into early 2027, a hybrid of the two, or a lapse for some agencies while others are completed.
Can the new House majority end the current tariffs by itself?
Not alone. Article I gives Congress the power over duties, but ABC explains that a bill needs 60 Senate votes apart from reconciliation, and a presidential veto needs two-thirds of both chambers to override.
How is the official dollar rate in Russia set?
The Bank of Russia sets official rates by an order, and they stay valid until the next order takes effect. Its cbr.ru page lists them and adds that the Bank is not bound to trade currency at those prices.