Answer in brief
An IMF mission sees a sharp slowdown linked to flight disruption; Seychelles' own visitor figures show recovery is still incomplete.
A smaller growth forecast
An IMF staff mission statement issued on 29 September projects real GDP growth of 1% for Seychelles in 2026, down from 5.8% in 2025. Staff attributed much of the short-term weakness to the Middle East conflict's effect on visitor arrivals, particularly from March to June, and said later months showed an early recovery. This is a forecast, not the measured result for a year still under way. The statement is a preliminary staff view ahead of an expected December discussion by the IMF Executive Board, not a Board judgment.
The visitor count gives a dated check
Seychelles' National Bureau of Statistics reported 8,746 visitor arrivals in the week ending 27 September and 261,270 arrivals so far in 2026. The comparable 2025 year-to-date figure was 281,522, putting the 2026 total 7.2% lower. A stronger week can coexist with a weaker year: arrivals lost earlier are not restored merely because current flights improve. These are counts of people arriving, not hotel revenue, average spending or GDP. They corroborate a tourism shortfall but cannot alone determine the IMF's exact growth projection.
Low inflation has a fiscal side
The IMF staff said headline inflation was 0.9% through August, partly because state-owned enterprises limited the domestic pass-through of higher international commodity prices. That cushioning benefits consumers in the near term, but the mission said it weakened some enterprise balance sheets and reduced dividends to the government. The statement also described the rupee as broadly stable against the dollar and central-bank reserves at roughly four months of import cover. Those buffers make the external picture less alarming, while not removing the cost of price support or the tourism exposure.
A longer-term employment question
A World Bank report released on 17 September identifies productivity, skills, the business environment and digital adoption as longer-run constraints on better jobs in Seychelles. Its modelled gains from reforms are conditional scenarios, not jobs already created or a direct offset to this year's visitor loss. For the immediate outlook, watch monthly arrivals, tourism receipts and enterprise finances as the recovery progresses. For a more durable economy, the question is whether firms can earn more per worker and diversify opportunities. By 30 September, an early visitor rebound is visible, but full recovery is not established.
Questions and answers
Is 1% Seychelles growth an observed full-year result?
No. It is IMF staff's projection for 2026, published after its September mission; the full year has not ended.
Have visitor arrivals recovered?
The IMF describes a nascent recovery after the March–June decline. The national statistics bureau still reports year-to-date arrivals 7.2% below 2025 through the week ending 27 September.