Answer in brief
Gasoline is expensive mainly because crude oil is expensive during the US-Israeli war on Iran. As of 2 November 2026 AAA's national average for regular was $4.17 a gallon, down from $4.40 a month earlier. An analyst expects it could dip under $4 within a week if oil keeps falling, but that is a forecast, not a promise.
AAA's figure of $4.17 a gallon on 2 November 2026
The short answer to why gas prices are so high is crude oil, the biggest cost in a gallon, which has been expensive during the US-Israeli war on Iran. As of 2 November 2026, AAA's national average for regular was $4.17 a gallon. Al Jazeera, which reported the figure, adds that regular cost $2.98 on 28 February, the day the US and Israel first struck Iran.
The direction right now is down. Al Jazeera reported that oil fell 6% on Monday after President Trump signalled a preference for negotiations over new attacks, following talks in Qatar. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told the outlet that prices would fall sharply once the conflict ends. That is an official expectation with no date attached.
The AAA average over a week, a month and a year
AAA's page shows $4.1694 on 2 November, $4.2858 a week earlier, $4.3961 a month earlier and $3.0361 a year earlier: about $1.13 above last year, 23 cents below last month. It is not a record, since AAA lists $5.0165 for regular on 14 June 2022. Diesel is nearer its peak, with a record of $6.5276 on 22 September 2026.
What a gallon is made of, according to the EIA
The US Energy Information Administration says crude oil is the largest part of a retail gasoline price. For 2025, when the average was $3.10 a gallon, its chart gives crude 51.4% and taxes 16.6%, with refining, distribution and marketing making up the rest. Federal tax is 18.40 cents and state taxes and fees average 33.55 cents, fixed per gallon, so oil is what moves the pump quickly.
Why the Strait of Hormuz reaches the pump
The EIA reports that oil through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2024, about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. CNBC reported on 2 November that attacks on tankers there are raising energy and shipping costs, and that Brent ended October at its highest in six months. The White House told Al Jazeera that more oil now leaves the Persian Gulf than before the conflict; neither report gives a figure for current flows.
What could take the price under $4, and what is unknown
Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy wrote on X that wholesale gasoline pointed to a drop of roughly 16 cents and that the national average could fall under $4 within a week, barring a change of course. It is one analyst's forecast built on one day of oil trading.
The risk runs the other way too. CNBC quoted Tim Waterer of KCM Trade saying rhetoric on Iran could escalate after the US midterm elections on 3 November, which might push Brent toward $120. Nobody yet knows whether the Qatar-mediated talks will end the war, so no date for lower prices can be given.
Questions and answers
How much is a gallon of gas in the US right now?
AAA's national average for regular was $4.1694 as of 2 November 2026, against $4.2858 a week earlier. The figure on AAA's gas prices page changes with each update, so check it for today's number.
How much of the pump price is crude oil?
The EIA's chart for 2025 attributes 51.4% of the $3.10 average retail price to crude oil and 16.6% to taxes. Refining, distribution and marketing share the rest, so oil moves the total most.
Will gas prices fall below $4 this week?
GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said the national average could fall under $4 within a week, barring a change of course. It is a forecast. Analysts quoted by CNBC also warn of a rebound if talks stall.